“You can no longer run your old thought programs”

I just came across this interesting epilogue from Ronald A. Howard’s article “The Foundations of Decision Analysis Revisited” in Advances in Decision Analysis: “To me, incorporating the principles and philosophy of decision analysis is not just learning the subject, but more like installing a new operating system in your brain. You can no longer run [...]

Yudkowsky – Bayes’ Theorem

  Eliezer S. Yudkowsky provides a rather entertaining (but highly illuminating) explanation of Bayes’ Theorem and its application: Yudkowsky – Bayes’ Theorem. The exact circumstances of its development in the late 1700s remain unknown, but this long-forgotten theorem of Reverend Thomas Bayes is finally becoming mainstream in analytics applications today.

Causal Inference – A Neglected Science?

I found some rather remarkable quotes on Charles S. Portwood’s site about causal inference (http://causalstatistics.org): “The development and utilization of Causal Statistics will eventually be as important to the non-experimental sciences as the codification and utilization of the scientific method was to the physical (i.e., experimental) sciences.” 1969 “It is beyond incredulity that, in the [...]